Muri 2022, munsi yintego ya "dual carbone", isi iri mubyiciro byingenzi byo guhindura ingufu.Amakimbirane arenze hagati y’Uburusiya na Ukraine akomeje gutuma ibiciro by’ingufu by’ibinyabuzima biri hejuru.Ibihugu byita cyane ku mbaraga zishobora kuvugururwa, kandi isoko rya Photovoltaque riratera imbere.Iyi ngingo izagaragaza uko ibintu bimeze hamwe n’icyerekezo cy’isoko ry’amafoto y’isi yose uhereye ku bintu bine: icya mbere, iterambere ry’inganda zifotora ku isi ndetse n’ibihugu / uturere tw’ibanze;icya kabiri, ubucuruzi bwohereza ibicuruzwa hanze yinganda zifotora;icya gatatu, iteganyagihe ryiterambere ryinganda zifotora mu 2023;Iya kane ni isesengura ryimiterere yiterambere ryinganda zifotora mugihe giciriritse kandi kirekire.
Ibihe byiterambere
1.Uruganda rwamafoto yisi yose rufite amahirwe menshi yiterambere, rushyigikira icyifuzo cyibicuruzwa mumashanyarazi yinganda zikomeza kuba hejuru.
2. Ibicuruzwa bifotora mu Bushinwa bifite ibyiza byo guhuza inganda, kandi ibyoherezwa mu mahanga birarushanwa cyane.
3. Ibikoresho byingenzi bya Photovoltaque biratera imbere muburyo bwo gukora neza, gukoresha ingufu nke, nigiciro gito.Guhindura imikorere ya batteri nikintu cyingenzi cya tekiniki yo guca icyuho cyinganda zifotora.
4. Ukeneye kwitondera ingaruka zamarushanwa mpuzamahanga.Mugihe isoko ryogukoresha amafoto yisi yose rikomeje gukenerwa cyane, amarushanwa mpuzamahanga mubikorwa byinganda zifotora bigenda byiyongera.
Iterambere ryinganda zifotora kwisi kwisi nibihugu byingenzi / uturere
Dufatiye ku iherezo ry’inganda zikora inganda zifotora, mu mwaka wose wa 2022, bitewe n’isoko ry’isoko risaba, igipimo cy’umusaruro w’iherezo ry’inganda zikora inganda zifotora izakomeza kwaguka.Dukurikije amakuru aheruka gutangazwa n’ishyirahamwe ry’inganda mu mafoto y’Ubushinwa muri Gashyantare 2023, biteganijwe ko ubushobozi bw’amashanyarazi bwashyizweho ku isi buteganijwe kuba GW 230 mu 2022, umwaka ushize bikiyongera 35.3%, ibyo bikazakomeza kwaguka mu nganda ubushobozi bwuruganda rwamafoto.Mu mwaka wose wa 2022, Ubushinwa buzatanga toni 806.000 zose za polysilicon ya Photovoltaque, bikiyongera 59% umwaka ushize.Dukurikije imibare y’inganda zerekana igipimo cyo guhindura hagati ya polysilicon na modules, polisilicon yo mu Bushinwa iboneka ijyanye n’umusaruro wa module izaba hafi 332.5 GW mu 2022, ikiyongera kuva 2021. 82.9%.
Guhanura imigendekere yiterambere ryinganda zifotora muri 2023
Inzira yo gufungura hejuru no kujya hejuru yarakomeje umwaka wose.Nubwo igihembwe cya mbere ubusanzwe ari igihe kitari gito cyo kwishyiriraho Uburayi n’Ubushinwa, vuba aha, ubushobozi bushya bwo gukora polysilicon bwagiye busohoka buri gihe, bigatuma igiciro cyamanuka mu ruhererekane rw’inganda, kigabanya neza igitutu cy’ibiciro cyo hasi, kandi gishimangira irekurwa ubushobozi bwashyizweho.Muri icyo gihe, biteganijwe ko PV isabwa mu mahanga izakomeza inzira ya “off-season” muri Mutarama kuva Gashyantare kugeza Werurwe.Dukurikije ibitekerezo by’amasosiyete akomeye, icyerekezo cy’umusaruro w’amasomo nyuma y’Iserukiramuco kiragaragara, aho impuzandengo y'ukwezi ku kwezi yiyongereyeho 10% -20% muri Gashyantare, ndetse no kwiyongera muri Werurwe.Guhera mu gihembwe cya kabiri n'icya gatatu, kubera ko ibiciro byo gutanga amasoko bikomeje kugabanuka, biteganijwe ko ibisabwa bizakomeza kwiyongera, kandi kugeza mu mpera z'umwaka, hazaba indi ntera nini nini ya gride ihuza imiyoboro, itwara ubushobozi bwashyizweho muri igihembwe cya kane kugirango kigere ku mpinga yumwaka. Amarushanwa yinganda aragenda arushaho gukomera.Mu 2023, uruhare cyangwa ingaruka za geopolitike, imikino yo mu gihugu kinini, imihindagurikire y’ikirere n’ibindi bintu ku ruhererekane rw’inganda no gutanga amasoko bizakomeza, kandi amarushanwa mu nganda mpuzamahanga y’amafoto y’amashanyarazi azarushaho gukomera.Duhereye ku bicuruzwa, ibigo byongera ubushakashatsi no guteza imbere ibicuruzwa bikora neza, akaba ari yo ntangiriro nyamukuru yo kuzamura ubushobozi bwo guhangana ku isi ku bicuruzwa bifotora;Urebye imiterere yinganda, icyerekezo cyigihe kizaza cyogutanga inganda ziva mumashanyarazi kuva murwego rwo hagati kugeza kubegerejwe abaturage no gutandukana bigenda bigaragara cyane, kandi birakenewe ko dushyira muburyo bwa siyanse kandi bushyize mu gaciro iminyururu yinganda ziva mumahanga hamwe namasoko yo hanze ukurikije ibiranga isoko kandi ibihe bya politiki, aribwo buryo bukenewe ku mishinga yo kuzamura irushanwa ku isi no kugabanya ingaruka ku isoko.
Imiterere yiterambere ryinganda zifotora mugihe giciriritse kandi kirekire
Inganda zifotora ku isi zifite amahirwe menshi yo kwiteza imbere, zunganira icyifuzo cy’inganda zikoresha amashanyarazi zikomeza kuba nyinshi.Urebye ku isi hose, guhindura imiterere y’ingufu mu buryo butandukanye, isuku na karuboni nkeya ni inzira idasubirwaho, kandi guverinoma ishishikariza cyane imishinga guteza imbere inganda zikomoka ku mirasire y’izuba.Mu rwego rwo guhindura ingufu, hamwe n’impamvu nziza zo kugabanuka kw’amashanyarazi y’amashanyarazi azanwa n’iterambere ry’ikoranabuhanga, mu gihe giciriritse, ingufu z’amashanyarazi zashyizweho mu mahanga zizakomeza gukomeza gutera imbere cyane.Dukurikije ibiteganijwe mu ishyirahamwe ry’inganda z’amafoto mu Bushinwa, ubushobozi bushya bw’amafoto y’amashanyarazi ku isi buzaba 280-330 GW mu 2023 na 324-386 GW mu 2025, bunganira icyifuzo cy’ibicuruzwa bikomoka ku nganda zikomoka ku mafoto bikomeza kuba hejuru.Nyuma ya 2025, urebye ibintu bikoreshwa ku isoko nibitangwa hamwe nibisabwa bihuye, hashobora kubaho ubushobozi burenze urugero bwibicuruzwa bifotora ku isi. Ibicuruzwa bifotora byamafoto yubushinwa bifite inyungu zo guhuza inganda, kandi ibyoherezwa mu mahanga bifite ubushobozi bwo guhangana cyane.Inganda z’amafoto y’Ubushinwa zifite inyungu zuzuye ku isi mu gutanga amasoko y’amafoto y’amashanyarazi, inkunga yuzuye mu nganda, ingaruka zo guhuza ibicuruzwa no mu majyepfo, ubushobozi hamwe n’ibisohoka biragaragara, bikaba aribyo shingiro ryo gushyigikira ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga.Muri icyo gihe, inganda z’amafoto y’Ubushinwa zikomeje guhanga udushya no kuyobora isi mu nyungu z’ikoranabuhanga, ishyiraho urufatiro rwo gukoresha amahirwe mpuzamahanga ku isoko.Byongeye kandi, ikoranabuhanga rya tekinoroji hamwe n’ikoranabuhanga ryubwenge byihutishije guhindura imibare no kuzamura inganda zikora no kuzamura umusaruro mwinshi. ibintu byingenzi bya tekiniki yinganda zifotora kugirango ziveho icyuho.Hashingiwe ku kuringaniza ibiciro no gukora neza, iyo tekinoroji ya batiri ifite imikorere ihindagurika cyane igacika ku musaruro rusange, izahita ifata isoko kandi ikureho ubushobozi buke bwo gukora.Urunigi rw'ibicuruzwa hamwe n'uruhererekane rw'ibicuruzwa hagati yo hejuru no munsi y’urunigi rw’inganda nabyo bizubakwa.Kugeza ubu, selile silicon selile iracyari ikoranabuhanga ryibanze ryinganda zifotora amashanyarazi, naryo rikaba rigizwe no gukoresha cyane ibikoresho fatizo bya silicon yo hejuru, kandi bifatwa nkigisekuru cya gatatu cyibikoresho byoroheje cyane bya bateri bahagarariye perovskite bateri ya firime. mu kuzigama ingufu, kurengera ibidukikije, gukoresha igishushanyo mbonera, gukoresha ibikoresho fatizo nibindi bintu bifite inyungu zingenzi, ikoranabuhanga riracyari mubyiciro bya laboratoire, igihe iterambere ryikoranabuhanga rimaze kugerwaho, gusimbuza selile silicon kristaline biba ikoranabuhanga nyamukuru, imbogamizi. by'ibikoresho fatizo byo hejuru murwego rwinganda bizacika.Icyifuzo gikwiye kwitabwaho kubibazo byamarushanwa mpuzamahanga.Mugihe gikomeje gukenerwa cyane ku isoko ry’imikoreshereze y’amafoto ku isi, amarushanwa mpuzamahanga mu nganda zikora amafoto y’amashanyarazi ariyongera.Ibihugu bimwe na bimwe birateganya kwimakaza umusaruro n’inganda n’inganda zitangwa mu nganda zifotora amashanyarazi, kandi iterambere ry’inganda nshya zashyizwe hejuru ku rwego rwa guverinoma, kandi hariho intego, ingamba n'intambwe.Kurugero, itegeko ryo kugabanya ifaranga ry’Amerika muri 2022 rirateganya gushora miliyari 30 z'amadolari mu nguzanyo z’imisoro ku musaruro hagamijwe guteza imbere itunganywa ry’izuba n’ibicuruzwa by’ingenzi muri Amerika;Umuryango w'ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi urateganya kugera ku ntego ya 100 GW y’inganda zuzuye za PV mu 2030;Ubuhinde bwatangaje gahunda y’igihugu ishinzwe ingufu za Solar PV Modules ikora neza, igamije kongera inganda zaho no kugabanya ibicuruzwa biva mu mahanga biterwa n’ingufu zishobora kubaho.Muri icyo gihe kandi, ibihugu bimwe na bimwe byashyizeho ingamba zo kugabanya ibicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mafoto y’Ubushinwa biturutse ku nyungu zabo bwite, ibyo bikaba bigira ingaruka ku bicuruzwa byoherejwe n’amafoto y’Ubushinwa byoherezwa mu mahanga.
kuva: Ibigo byabashinwa bihuza ingufu nshya.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Gicurasi-12-2023